background image
Business jet aviation is in the early stages of
development in Greater China
6
. Currently,
the Chinese fleet accounts for less than 2%
of the worldwide business jet installed base.
Nevertheless, China has great potential to see
a rapid growth of business jet deliveries in the
coming years.
In 2012 China experienced a relative economic
slowdown as the Chinese economy heavily
relies on exports which were weak due to
slower global demand. The country's GDP
growth averaged 6.9% in 2012 versus the
double-digit growth it posted during most of
the previous decade. In order to stimulate its
economy and offset the current slowdown,
the Chinese government is undertaking an
expansionary fiscal policy. In its five-year
development plan for the 2011-2015 period,
this policy is particularly geared toward
government-funded investment projects,
including airport infrastructure. According
to IHS Global Insight, China's GDP growth is
projected to reach 7.6% in 2013 and the annual
GDP growth for the next 20 years is anticipated
to average 6.2%.
In the past, significant barriers have prevented
the Chinese business jet market from growing
to its potential. Restrictive airspace access, high
aircraft import taxes and high user fees are
The Forecast
GREATER CHINA
CHINA HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME ONE OF THE TOP
THREE REGIONS IN TERMS
OF DELIVERIES FOR
THE NEXT 20 YEARS.
among the factors which explain China's
small fleet of some 290 business jets
for an increasingly affluent population
of 1.3 billion in 2012. In addition, China's
current business aviation infrastructure
is underdeveloped, taking into
consideration the country's size, with only
180 airports as of the end of 2011. China
is acting to address this shortfall - the
Civil Aviation Administration of China
(CAAC) reported that it will accelerate its
infrastructure investment in the next three
years, and the government is targeting to
build 72 new airports by 2015.
In terms of billionaires, China is the third
largest region, after the U.S. and Europe.
The Chinese population of billionaires
increased by 18% in 2013, totaling 186
individuals compared to 157 in 2012,
according to Forbes. China is presently
the second largest market for luxury
goods, and is forecast to take first
place by 2015, according to The Boston
Consulting Group.
The Chinese market accounted for
7% of worldwide industry deliveries in
2012 compared to 2% of total industry
deliveries in 2009.
Demand for business jets should increase
considerably in China as barriers to
business jet ownership and operation
are gradually removed, as the opening of
airspace for civil aviation is accelerated,
and as the significant investment in
airport infrastructure begins to pay
dividends. Bombardier's forecast for
business jet penetration predicts that
fleet per population of 100 million will
grow from 24 to 201 over the next
20 years, equivalent to 2,420 aircraft
deliveries. During the forecast period
China will become the third largest
market of business jets with 1,000 aircraft
deliveries between 2013 and 2022 and
1,420 deliveries between 2023 and 2032.
Considering that the country represents
a relatively new market, retirements will
account for less than 3% of the country's
overall fleet during the 2013-2032 period.
The fleet will increase at a CAGR of 12%
from 290 aircraft in 2012 to 2,640 aircraft
by the end of 2032 and is projected
to account for nearly for 9% of the
worldwide business jet fleet by
this date.
38
39
Figure #29
FLEET EVOLUTION FORECAST GREATER CHINA
Fleet, Deliveries, Retirements; 2012-2032
290
1,000
10
1,280
1,420
60
2,640
Fleet 2012
Deliveries
Retirements Fleet 2022 Deliveries
Retirements Fleet 2032
Source: Ascend, Bombardier forecast
Excludes Very Light Jets and Large Corporate Airliners.
Figure #29
FLEET EVOLUTION FORECAST GREATER CHINA
Fleet, Deliveries, Retirements; 2012-2032
290
1,000
10
1,280
1,420
60
2,640
Fleet 2012
Deliveries
Retirements Fleet 2022 Deliveries
Retirements Fleet 2032
Source: Ascend, Bombardier forecast
Excludes Very Light Jets and Large Corporate Airliners.
6 Greater China includes China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan.
Figure #28
1982 1992
2002
2012
2022
2032
BUSINESS JET PENETRATION FORECAST GREATER CHINA
Fleet per Capita vs. GDP per Capita, 1960-2032
Sources: Ascend, IHS Global Insight, UN population project, Bombardier forecast
Includes Very Light Jets and Large Corporate Airliners.
10,000
1,000
100
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
10
1
Fleet per 100 Million Population (Log Scale)
GDP per Capita (USD, Log Scale)
Actuals
Forecast
Figure #24
BUSINESS JET PENETRATION FORECAST NORTH AMERICA
Fleet per Capita vs. GDP per Capita, 1960-2032
Sources: Ascend, IHS Global Insight, UN population project, Bombardier forecast
Includes Very Light Jets and Large Corporate Airliners.
1962
1972
1982
1992
2002
2012 2022 2032
10,000
1,000
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
10
Fleet per 100 Million Population (Log Scale)
GDP per Capita (USD, Log Scale)
Actuals
Forecast
Figure #24
BUSINESS JET PENETRATION FORECAST NORTH AMERICA
Fleet per Capita vs. GDP per Capita, 1960-2032
Sources: Ascend, IHS Global Insight, UN population project, Bombardier forecast
Includes Very Light Jets and Large Corporate Airliners.
1962
1972
1982
1992
2002
2012 2022 2032
10,000
1,000
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
10
Fleet per 100 Million Population (Log Scale)
GDP per Capita (USD, Log Scale)
Actuals
Forecast
Figure #28
1982 1992
2002
2012
2022
2032
BUSINESS JET PENETRATION FORECAST GREATER CHINA
Fleet per Capita vs. GDP per Capita, 1960-2032
Sources: Ascend, IHS Global Insight, UN population project, Bombardier forecast
Includes Very Light Jets and Large Corporate Airliners.
10,000
1,000
100
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
10
1
Fleet per 100 Million Population (Log Scale)
GDP per Capita (USD, Log Scale)
Actuals
Forecast